Weekly Market Recap (11-15 September)

Monday:

BoJ Governor Ueda
interviewed by Japanese media Yomiuri over the weekend said that his focus is
on a “quiet exit” to avoid significant impact on the market:

• We could have enough
  data by year-end to determine whether we can end negative rates.
• Once we’re convinced
  Japan will see sustained rises in inflation accompanied by wage growth,
  there are various options we can take.
• If we judge that
  Japan can achieve its inflation target even after ending negative rates,
  we’ll do so.
• The BOJ will
  patiently maintain ultra-loose policy.
• While Japan is
  showing budding positive signs, achievement of our target isn’t in sight
  yet.
• Wage rises are
  beginning to push up service prices. The key is whether wages will keep
  rising next year.
• “There are some
  things we cannot see, including overseas economies” and expressed his
  cautious approach.

BoE’s Mann (hawk –
voter) said that she prefers to err on the side of overtightening:

• If I am wrong and
  inflation and economy drop more significantly, I wouldn’t hesitate to cut
  rates.
• It’s a risky bet
  that inflation expectations are sufficiently well-anchored, and we can
  wait for core inflation to ease.
• We need to prepare
  for a world where inflation is more likely to be volatile.
• The idea that 3%
  inflation is ‘close enough’ can’t be the BOE’s guide.

The NY Fed released its
August inflation expectations survey:

• Survey of consumers in
  August puts one-year ahead expected inflation at 3.6% vs. July reading of 3.5%.
• August three-year ahead
  expected inflation at 2.8% vs. July 2.9%.
• August five-year ahead
  expected inflation at 3.0% vs. July 2.9%.
• August expected home
  price rise moves to 3.1% from July 2.8% (highest since July 2022).
• Record number of
  consumers said credit now harder to get.
• Households more downbeat
  on current and future finances.
• Income growth
  perceptions declined to 2.9 percent, the lowest reading since July 2021.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months
  rose by 2.0 percentage points to 13.8%, its highest reading since April 2021.

Tuesday:

BoJ offered to buy an
unlimited amount of JGBs after the yield on the 10yr bond surged to the highest
level since 2014 (around 0.70%).

The UK August Payroll change printed at -1K vs. 30K
expected and -4K prior (revised from 97K!):

• July ILO
  unemployment rate 4.3% vs. 4.3% expected and 4.2% prior.
• July employment
  change -207k vs. -185k expected and -66K prior.
• Average weekly
  earnings incl. Bonus 3M/YoY 8.5% vs. 8.2% expected and 8.4% prior (revised
  from 8.2%).
• Average weekly
  earnings ex-Bonus 3M/YoY 7.8% vs. 7.8% expected and 7.8% prior.

German September ZEW survey fell to a new cycle low:

• Current conditions
  -79.4 vs. -75.0 expected and -71.3 prior.
• Expectations -11.4
  vs. -15.0 expected and -12.3 prior.

BoE’s Breeden (neutral – non voter) will replace Jon
Cunliffe in November:

• The risks to
  inflation around August forecast are to the upside.
• Sees balanced risks
  to growth and unemployment in both directions.
• Expects inflation to
  be around the 2% target in two years.

The US NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index missed coming in at 91.3 vs. 91.6 expected and 91.9
prior.

Wednesday:

The Japanese PPI slowed more in August on a year over
year basis:

• PPI M/M 0.3% vs.
  0.1% expected and 0.1% prior.
• PPI Y/Y 3.2% vs.
  3.2% expected and 3.4% prior (revised from 3.6%).

The UK Monthly GDP missed expectations:

• Monthly GDP -0.5%
  vs. -0.2% expected and 0.5% prior.
• GDP 3M/3M 0.2% vs. 0.3%
  expected and 0.2% prior.
• Services -0.5%.
• Industrial output -0.7%.
• Manufacturing output -0.8%.
• Construction output -0.5%.

Eurozone Industrial Production missed expectations:

• Industrial
  Production M/M -1.1% vs. -0.7% expected and 0.4% prior (revised from 0.5%).
• Industrial
  Production Y/Y -2.2% vs. -0.3% expected and -1.1% prior (revised from -1.2%).

The US CPI came basically in line with expectations
with the 3-month annualised Core CPI standing now at 2.4%:

• CPI Y/Y 3.7% vs.
  3.6% expected and 3.2% prior.
• CPI M/M 0.6% vs. 0.6%
  expected and 0.2% prior.
• Core CPI Y/Y 4.3%
  vs. 4.3% expected and 4.7% prior.
• Core CPI M/M 0.3%
  (0.278% unrounded) vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior.
• Shelter M/M 0.3% vs.
  0.4% prior.
• Shelter Y/Y 7.3% vs.
  7.7% prior.
• Services less rent
  and shelter M/M 0.5% vs. 0.2% prior.
• Real weekly earnings
  -0.1% vs. 0.0% prior.

Thursday:

The Australian August Jobs report beat expectations
but most of the jobs added were part-time:

• Employment change
  64.9K vs. 23.0K expected and -14.6K prior.
• Full-time
  employment 2.8K vs. -24.2K prior.
• Part-time
  employment 62.1K vs. 9.6K prior.
• Unemployment rate
  3.7% vs. 3.7% expected and 3.7% prior.
• Participation rate
  67.0% vs. 66.7% expected and 66.7% prior.
• Hours worked M/M
  -0.5%.

The PBoC cut the RRR by 25 bps. The weighted average
RRR for financial institutions will be around 7.40% after the latest cut. The
central bank adds that it will keep prudent monetary policy and ensure
liquidity remains reasonably ample.

The ECB hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected
bringing the deposit rate to 4.00% vs. 3.75% prior and signals the peak:

• Inflation continues to decline but is still
  expected to remain too high for too long.
• Past rate hikes continue to be transmitted
  forcefully.
• Financing conditions have tightened further
  and are increasingly dampening demand.
• ECB considers that key rates have reached
  levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a
  substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target.
• Future decisions will ensure that the key
  rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.
• ECB will continue to follow a
  data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of
  restriction.

Growth and Inflation forecasts:

• 2023 GDP at 0.7% (previously 0.9%).
• 2024 GDP at 1.0% (previously 1.5%).
• 2025 GDP at 1.5% (previously 1.6%).
• 2023 inflation at 5.6% (previously 5.4%).
• 2024 inflation at 3.2% (previously 3.0%).
• 2025 inflation at 2.1% (previously 2.2%).

Moving on to the press conference, President Lagarde didn’t
say anything hawkish and highlighted the slowing in the Eurozone economy:

• Higher inflation
  forecasts mainly reflect higher energy.
• Rates will remain at
  sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.
• Rates were hiked to
  ‘reinforce commitment to our target’.
• The economy is
  likely to remain subdued in the coming months.
• The services sector,
  which had been resilient, is now slowing.
• Recent indicators
  suggest a weak Q3.
• Labour market remains resilient.
• In the coming months
  inflation will fall.
• Most measures of
  underlying inflation are starting to fall.
• The risks to
  economic growth are tilted to the downside.
• We will continue to
  follow a data dependent model and stand ready to adjust all our
  instruments.
• Some governors would
  have preferred to pause and wait on more data.
• A ‘solid majority’
  agreed with the decision.
• Three quarters of
  the rise in the 2024 rise in inflation is due to carry-over from 2023.
• We didn’t discuss
  how long we will leave rates at these levels; we will continue to be data
  dependent.
• We are not saying
  that we’re now at the peak, we can’t say that now.
• The focus is
  expected to move towards duration.
• Policy transmission
  is faster than previous cycles.
• We are going through
  a phase of very sluggish growth.
• We see weak signs.

The US Jobless Claims beat expectations across the
board:

• Initial Claims 220K
  vs. 225K expected and 217K prior (revised from 216K).
• Continuing Claims
  1688K vs. 1695K expected and 1684K prior (revised from 1679K).

The US Retail Sales beat expectations with some
downward revisions to the prior figures:

• Retail sales M/M
  0.6% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.5% prior (revised from 0.7%).
• Retail Sales Y/Y
  2.5% vs. 2.6% prior (revised from 3.2%).
• Retail Sales Ex-autos
  0.6% vs. 0.4% expected and 1.0% prior.
• Control group 0.1% vs.
  -0.1% expected and 0.7% prior (revised from 1.0%).
• Retail sales ex gas
  and autos 0.2% vs. 0.7% prior (revised from 1.0%).

The US August PPI surprised to the upside on the
headline readings, but the core measures were in line with forecasts:

• PPI Y/Y 1.6% vs. 1.2%
  expected and 0.8% prior.
• PPI M/M 0.7% vs.
  0.4% expected and 0.4% prior (revised from 0.3%).
• Core PPI Y/Y 2.2%
  y/y vs. 2.2% expected and 2.4% prior.
• Core PPI M/M 0.2% vs.
  0.2% expected and 0.4% prior (revised from 0.3%).

Friday:

The New Zealand Manufacturing PMI for August fell
further into contraction:

The PBoC kept the MLF rate unchanged at 2.5% as
expected but cut the 14-day reverse repo rate by 20 bps from 2.15% to 1.95%.

Chinese activity data surprised to the upside:

• Retail Sales Y/Y
  4.6% vs. 3.0% and 2.6% prior.
• Industrial
  Production Y/Y 4.5% vs. 3.9% and 3.7% prior.
• Unemployment rate
  5.2% vs. 5.3% expected and 5.3% prior.

Comments from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS):

• In August, major indicators showed marginal
  improvement.
• National economy showed good momentum of
  recovery.
• Domestic
  demand remains insufficient.

ECB’s Lagarde (neutral – voter) didn’t push back on
yesterday’s hint on the end of the tightening cycle:

• We
  will return to 2% inflation target.
• To set rates at restrictive level as long as needed for that.
• Eurozone
  will not grow as much as expected earlier but should pick up in 2024.
• Weaker
  growth does not mean recession.
• What
  we do next on rates will be on a data-dependent basis.
• We
  have not discussed rate cuts.

ECB’s
Kazaks (hawk – voter) basically confirmed that the ECB has reached its terminal
rate:

• Latest monetary
  policy move was not a ‘dovish hike’.
• It does not preclude
  future decisions.
• Comfortable with
  current level of rates.
• Sees inflation
  target being reached in 2H 2025.
• April rate cut would
  be inconsistent with ECB’s macro scenario.

The US Industrial Production for August beat
expectations:

• Industrial
  Production M/M 0.4% vs. 0.1% expected and 0.7% prior (revised from 1.0%).

• Industrial Production
  Y/Y 0.2% vs. 0.0% prior (revised from -0.2%)

• Capacity utilization
  79.7% vs. 79.3% expected and 79.5% prior (revised from 79.3%).

The University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey missed forecasts across the board with
inflation expectations falling even after the rise in energy prices:

• Consumer Sentiment 67.7
  vs. 69.1 expected and 69.5 prior.
• Current conditions
  69.8 vs. 75.3 expected and 75.7 prior.
• Expectations 66.3 vs
  66.0 expected and 65.5 prior.
• 1-year inflation 3.1% vs. 3.5% prior.
• 5-10 year 2.7% vs. 3.0% prior.

The highlights for next week
will be:

• Monday: NZ
  Services PMI, US NAHB Housing Market Index.
• Tuesday: RBA
  Meeting Minutes, Canada CPI, US Building Permits and Housing Starts.
• Wednesday: PBoC
  LPR, UK CPI, BoC Summary of Deliberations, FOMC Policy Decision.
• Thursday: NZ GDP,
  SNB Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims.
• Friday: Japan CPI,
  BoJ Policy Decision, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales, Flash PMIs for AU,
  JP, UK, EZ, US.

That’s all folks, have a great weekend!