S&P global manufacturing PMI flash for September 48.9 versus 48.0 estimate

• Prior month manufacturing PMI 47.9. Services PMI 50.5
• Manufacturing PMI 48.9 versus 48.0 estimate
• Services PMI 50.2 versus 50.6 estimate
• Composite PMI 50.1 versus 50.2 last month

Mixed report vs expectations. Manufacturing remains below the 50 level indicative of contraction. Services remain just above the 50.0 level as it clings to growth.

The services PMI recent high came in at 54.9 in May.

Overview comments from S&P global

• US businesses experienced widespread stagnation in output at the end of Q3.
• Both manufacturers and service providers reported subdued demand.
• September’s data showed the poorest performance in the private sector since February.
• The service economy’s momentum continued to wane.
• New orders saw their most significant decline of the year, with service demand notably contracting.
• Manufacturers reported a decrease in new sales, though it was less severe.
• Input costs increased, leading to heightened cost pressures.
• The inflation rate of costs was milder compared to the three-year average.
• Despite rising costs, firms struggled to raise selling prices due to weak client interest, maintaining the same pace as in August.

Comments from S&P economist Sian Jones:

PMI data for September added to concerns regarding
the trajectory of demand conditions in the US economy
following interest rate hikes and elevated inflation.
Although the overall Output Index remained above the
50.0 mark, it was only fractionally so, with a broad
stagnation in total activity signalled for the second month
running. The service sector lost further momentum, with
the contraction in new orders gaining speed.
“Subdued demand did not translate into overall job losses
News Release
in September as a greater ability to find and retain
employees led to a quicker rise in employment growth.
That said, the boost to hiring from rising candidate
availability may not be sustained amid evidence of
burgeoning spare capacity and dwindling backlogs which
have previously supported workloads.

“Inflationary pressures remained marked, as costs rose at
a faster pace again. Higher fuel costs following recent
increases in oil prices, alongside greater wage bills,
pushed operating expenses up. Weak demand
nonetheless placed a barrier to firms’ ability to pass on
greater costs to clients, with prices charged inflation
unchanged on the month.