Deutsche Bank forecasting a German double-dip recession. HSBC target EUR/USD towards 1.02

Deutsche Bank says Germany’s economy is set for a double-dip recession

• (after the recession in Q4 of 2022 & Q1 of 2023) expects a GDP contraction in Q3 2023
• that’ll weigh on economic activity into 2024
• despite receding inflation, we expect that private consumption will only gradually come out of its rut
• consumer confidence has remained depressed
• say that the UK, France, U.S. and Italy will all grow faster

Further out and more broadly:

• “megatrends such as decarbonization, digitalization, and demographics, as well as signs of deglobalization, could cause structural supply bottlenecks in the 2020s and beyond. They are likely to slow potential growth in Germany towards 0.5% and keep inflation above 2%.”

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Meanwhile, HSBC is expecting further broad USD strength and a sliding EUR based on a weaker outlook for the economy in the euro area.

• HSBC is targeting EUR/USD just above 1.0200

HSBC add that pretty much the only thing the EUR has going for it is its not the dollar.

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