XAG/USD consolidates gains, still outlook looks bright

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• The XAG/USD surged to a daily high of $24.15 and then settled at $23.70.
• Dovish bets on the Fed weight on the US Dollar and yields favouring the metal.
• Fed’s Susan Collins warned markets that tightening may not be over.

The XAG/USD surged to a high above $24.00 on Friday and then settled around $23.70  as investors seemed to be taking profits, still closing a 6% winning week. Dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) put pressure on the US Dollar and in US yields, allowing the metal to find demand.

Markets responded positively to signs of cooling in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), interpreting it as an indication that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is close to concluding its hiking cycle, which weakened the US Dollar over the week. In line with that, it benefited the grey metal, which soared today to its highest level since early September as the dovish bets on the Fed triggered a decline in US bond yields, often seen as the cost of holding non-yielding metals.

However, Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, acknowledged on Friday the favourable financial conditions and welcomed the recent cooling in inflation. However, she did not rule out the possibility of further tightening, which caused some unease in the markets. In the meantime, US bond yields recovered after seeing sharp declines over the week. The 2-year rate stood at 4.91%, while the 5-year and 10-year yields were at 4.46% and 4.45%, respectively. 

XAG/USD levels to watch

The daily chart suggests that the XAG/USD holds a bullish technical bias despite indicators turning flat. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a neutral slope above its middle point, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) histogram displays stagnant green bars. Considering the broader technical landscape, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting that the bulls are also in control of the broader context.

Supports: $23.50, $23.30-20 (100 and 200-day SMA convergence),,$ 23.00.
Resistances: $24.15,$24.30,$24.50.

XAG/USD daily chart