The Euro has a problem this month if all the data is dull – SocGen

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Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes the EUR outlook.

EUR/USD needs help from the data calendar or else…

The Euro comes into August with short-term rate differentials drifting against it and long EUR futures positions looking vulnerable. 

Something needs to happen to boost confidence in another 25 bps ECB hike, or the positioning will drag EUR/USD down. Unless, of course, the US data this week are bad enough to shift the conversation back to when the Fed will start easing. So, data-sensitive, but if all the data is dull, the Euro has a problem this month.