Few surprises,  labor market continues to gradually cool – Wells Fargo

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Data released on Friday showed that Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 187,000 in July, falling below the market consensus of 200,000. June’s figures were also revised lower to 185,000, marking the lowest level since December 2020. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that the slower pace of hiring in July indicates that the labor market continues to gradually cool.

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Overall, there were few surprises in this morning’s employment report.

The labor market has continued to cool enough that underlying inflation pressures are easing, but not so much that the economy has tipped into a recession. Nonfarm payrolls have increased by less than 200K per month for two consecutive months, the first time that has happened since 2019 (excluding March/April 2020). That said, this pace of job growth is still comfortably above the ~100K jobs per month needed to keep the unemployment rate roughly flat in a steady participation environment.

The recent deceleration in the Employment Cost Index should temper the FOMC’s concerns about today’s stronger average hourly earnings data, but the still-elevated pace of job and wage growth, as well as very low unemployment, suggests rate cuts still remain a long ways off.