AUD traders – NAB says CPI data to be higher than RBA expects, forecast November rate hike

National Australia Bank is forecasting a November Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hike of 25bp, which will take the cash rate to 4.35%.

NAB on the Q3 CPI data that’s due on Wednesday, 25 October 2023

• at 11.30 am Sydney time, whoch is 0030 GMT and 2030 US Eastern time

in summary:

• services inflation set to remain high
• goods disinflation to sustain in Q3
• but expect an upside surprise to the RBA’s August SoMP inflation forecast
• expect continued disinflation as the economy experiences a period of below trend growth, but more gradual moderation in the near term than the RBA hopes

And, on the November 7 RBA meeting:

• NAB’s view is that the RBA is likely to lift rates at the November meeting, acting on its tightening bias to get more comfort that inflation is on the required path back to 2-3% in a reasonable time frame.

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Also, this … “A number in line with market expectations (+1% on both headline and core) likely to result in 25bp rate hike on” November 7