AUD/NZD coasting near 1.0880 as markets await inspiration

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• The AUD/NZD is floating near the top of recent consolidation.
• Aussie traders will be hoping to catch a bid if China data recovers.
• The Kiwi has a thin showing on the calendar this week, leaving it exposed to broader market flows.

The AUD/NZD is on the high side for the week, pinning into recent highs near 1.0885 heading into the midweek trading session.

The pairing has struggled to develop meaningful directional momentum as of late, and the Aussie (AUD) continues to waffle in familiar territory against the Kiwi (NZD), trading in familiar territory for the past two months.

Westpac’s Consumer Confidence measure for September landed in the early Tuesday session, printing a 1.5% contraction against the previous decline of 0.4%. The worsening data implies Aussie consumers are increasingly bearish on the Australian economy, but the win is still tipped towards the AUD side of the Aussie-Kiwi pair as the NZD takes a backseat.

The AUD has been benefitting from bouts of positive economic news from China, and Friday will see annualized figures for Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales, both of which are expected to show improvements. China Industrial Production for the annualized period into August is forecast to print at 4% (previous: 3.7%), while China Retail Sales for the same period are likewise expected to uptick slightly from 2.5% to 2.8%.

China’s economic data has struggled of late, increasing investor fears of a global slowdown sparked by souring data from within China, and investors will be looking for any reason to latch onto some good news. As China’s closest trading partner, the Aussie will benefit from good news from China and could take a leg higher if investors are pleased with the showing.

Aussie, Kiwi data slated for the economic calendar in the mid-week

Before China data on Friday though, there will be a smattering of Antipodean data: Australian labor and unemployment figures will be dropping early Thursday, with New Zealand showing up later in the day with the BusinessNZ Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures for August.

The August Australian Unemployment Rate is expected to tick lower from 3.7% to 3.6%, while Employment Change for the same month is expected to jump from a 14.6K decline to a positive 24.3K.

On the Kiwi side, BusinessNZ PMIs last printed at 46.3 in September. The manufacturing PMI traditionally does not carry a market forecast, but the indicator has steadily printed to the downside since May’s 49.1 showing, and has been on the sub-50.0 side of the indicator since March.

AUD/NZD technical outlook

Daily candlesticks for the AUD/NZD have rebounded on the 100- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which are consolidating near 1.0820 and 1.0825, respectively.

2023’s late May bottom near 1.0575 still remains intact, and June’s peak of 1.0150 remains well out of reach as the Antipodean cross pair struggles to break out of sideways action, consolidating around the 1.0850 level.

Technical momentum appears to be evaporating at the current level, and a downturn towards the 1.0800 major handle could be on the cards if Aussie bulls can’t catch enough bids to push the pair into new territory and force a challenge of the 1.0900 psychological level that currently sits just out of reach.

AUD/NZD daily chart

AUD/NZD technical levels