Weekly Market Outlook (06-10 November)

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Monday: BoJ
  Meeting Minutes.
• Tuesday: Japan
  Wage data, Chinese Trade data, RBA Policy Decision, Switzerland
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone PPI.
• Wednesday:
  Eurozone Retail Sales, BoC Summary of Deliberations.
• Thursday: BoJ
  Summary of Opinions, Chinese Inflation data, US Jobless Claims, New
  Zealand Manufacturing PMI.
• Friday:
  UK GPD
  Q3 Preliminary, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Tuesday

The market’s
expectation for a 25 bps rate hike from the RBA stands basically at 50%. The
market was pricing a higher chance of a rate hike following the “hot” CPI report, but the
odds were pared back once Governor Bullock noted that
the data was a little higher than expected but about where they thought it
would be. Moreover, the latest jobs data disappointed
once again as the labour market continues to weaken. All in all, the RBA is
likely to pass and wait for another labour market report and the
monthly CPI data before deciding whether another rate hike is needed.

Thursday

The US Jobless Claims last week
missed expectations once again with Continuing Claims now rising at a fast
pace. Moreover, the NFP report last Friday
missed forecasts almost across the board in another sign that the labour market
is indeed weakening. This week, the consensus sees Initial Claims at 215K vs.
217K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1815K vs. 1818K prior.

Friday

The
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report has lost its market moving
effect in this part of the cycle. One reason is because the market is more
focused on the weakening jobs data, which on a forward-looking basis is likely
to bring inflation down to target. Nevertheless, it remains an important survey
for consumers’ personal finances outlook. The
consensus sees Consumer Sentiment to tick higher to 64.0 vs. 63.8 prior.