US non-farm payroll preview – here are the ranges of estimates

The ranges from the survey are useful to be aware of for such high-profile data. When the actual results fall outside the range of estimates the market impact can be outsized.

I posted earlier in the week the range of estimates for the ADP data, which then came in well below. The market response was indeed outsized that session.

So, given that preamble, here are the ranges from the survey of expectations for the major data points in the NFP coming up today, minimum estimate first, then the maximum:

• Headline number for non-farm payrolls 90K to 256K
• Unemployment rate 3.4% to 3.9%
• Average earnings m/m 0.1% to 0.4%
• Average earnings y/y 4.2% to 4.4%