US August CPI due today – preview – final piece of the puzzle for the FOMC meeting

The data is due at 8.30 am US Eastern time.

Preview comments via CIBC:

• August CPI will be the final piece of the puzzle for the Fed ahead of its September meeting
• We expect the last few soft readings to start to form a trend, with core CPI in August expected to come in at a meagre 0.1% m/m as easing supply chains will weigh further on core goods prices.
• We look for service prices to remain firm given solid demand but will be around the pace in recent months.
• Favourable base effects will also help push the 12-month change in core inflation down meaningfully to 4.2%.
• Headline CPI will tick up on higher gasoline prices to 3.5%.
• Given the Fed is sitting in a data dependent position and will continue to weigh risk management considerations heavily, a downside surprise should be slightly bullish for fixed-income markets.