The Federal Reserve blackout starts at midnight

It’s safe to say that the Federal Reserve isn’t hiking in September. The market probability is just 7% and there has been no pushback from anyone meaningful about changing that ahead of the Sept 20 meeting.

But there are two top-tier economic data releases next week and perhaps two big surprises would change the Fed’s thinking. If so, they will have to turn to Nick Timiraos at the WSJ or some other Fedwatcher.

In any case, we’ll all be free of Fed talk for a fortnight.