The S&P 500 surged to new highs following the miss in the US CPI report. Looks like the market is still trading based on the inflation and interest rates expectations and ignoring the softening in the labour market and growth data. Yesterday, the US Retail Sales were more tepid compared to the prior months, but
Last Friday, the NFP report massively beat forecasts with 336K jobs added against 170K expected. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8% and average hourly earnings were a touch lower. Overall, the market viewed it as a good release with the soft-landing narrative prevailing. Over the weekend, Hamas launched a big attack against Israel which
Despite good economic data like lower core inflation, stable jobless claims, lower inflation expectations and strong consumer spending that support the soft-landing narrative, the S&P 500 just keeps on falling with very shallow pullbacks. One of the main reasons might be the non-stop rally in long term yields and real yields as it makes financial
Last week, the NFP missed expectations for a second time in a row and the previous numbers were all revised lower. This was seen as a disappointment as the labour market seems to be a touch weaker than previously expected. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate fell once again and lessened the disappointment from the miss in
