UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: UK Bank Holiday, Australian Retail Sales. Tuesday: Japan Unemployment Rate, US Consumer Confidence, US Job Openings. Wednesday: Australia CPI, US ADP. Thursday: Japan Retail Sales, Chinese PMIs, ECB Minutes, Eurozone CPI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, US Jobless Claims, US Core PCE. Friday: Swiss CPI, US NFP, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday The US
EUR/USD: Mr. Powell and Mrs. Lagarde – Much Talk, Little Substance ● Last week’s business activity data from both sides of the Atlantic proved to be exceptionally weak. The euro came under selling pressure due to a decline in Germany’s Services PMI from 52.3 to 47.3, which in turn pulled down the Composite Business Activity
POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Elevated inflation combined with higher average earnings making things tough for BoE. 25bps hike in September an almost certainty! Descending triangle keeps bears hungry. Recommended by Warren Venketas Get Your Free GBP Forecast UK’s Chancellor Hunt post-announcement: “While price rises are slowing, we’re not at the finish line.” GBP
Bank of America (BofA) outlines three primary reasons why dips in the USDJPY exchange rate are likely to be both shallow and short-lived. Despite the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent adjustments to its Yield Curve Control (YCC), BofA maintains its expectation for USDJPY to rise to 147 by September. Key Points: Unlikely Capital Repatriation: BofA
CIBC continues to believe the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points once again in September. The below consensus hiring and past downward revisions suggests that the labor market is coming into better balance. Still, the drop in the unemployment rate and solid wage growth will keep the Fed on track for a
EUR/USD: In Search of a New Bottom ● Last week, all the attention of the markets was focused on the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which took place on September 21. The probability of another rate hike by 75 basis points (bp) had been estimated at 74%, and by 100 bps at 26%.
EUR/USD: Ahead of the US Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting ● The World Bank said last week that risks of a recession in 2023 are growing amid simultaneous tightening of monetary policy by the world’s leading Central banks and the energy crisis in Europe. According to Citigroup strategists, the dollar remains the only safe haven for
To know what to buy and what to sell you need to read the chart. Graphs of changes in quotes of currency pairs, stock prices, index values carry much more information than is commonly believed. Few people know that on the chart you can also see the future dynamics. The issue of modeling the future
EUR/USD: Two Events of the Week ● The past week was marked by two significant events. First, the EUR/USD pair updated its 20-year low on Tuesday, September 06 once again, falling to 0.9863. And then the European Central Bank raised its key interest rate for the first time in its history by 75 basis points
EUR/USD: Rather Boring Week ● The past week was, boring, so to say. The macro statistics released from August 30 to September 2, although versatile, turned out to be quite close to market expectations. For example, the harmonized consumer price index in Germany, was 8.8%, with the forecast of 8.8%. The consumer price index
