Risk assets were generally on top this week thanks to net positive economic updates from the U.S. and stimulative efforts from China, supporting “soft landing” bets. Meanwhile, European currencies like EUR, GBP, and CHF lost pips as disappointing data releases highlighted the growth concerns in the region. So, how exactly did the major global assets
Risk currencies were strutting their stuff like they just won a Super Bowl thanks to positive economic updates from the U.S. and from China pulling out fresh ways to stimulate their economy. We guess that traders are all in for that “soft landing” touchdown! Unfortunately for European currencies, traders were unloading as data from the
Monday: ECB’s Wunsch (hawk – non voter) remains in favour of raising interest rates again: Underlying inflation remains persistent, may need more rate hikes. I’m inclined to say we maybe need to do a little bit more. The idea that we’ll have to come to a pause at a certain point can’t be excluded, but
Monday: BoJ Governor Ueda spoke on the weekend at the Jackson Hole Symposium and leant again on the dovish side: We think that underlying inflation is still a bit below our target. This is why we are sticking with our current monetary easing framework. BoJ Governor Ueda China halved the stamp duty on stock trading
Monday: The PBoC cut the 1-year LPR rate by less than expected and held the 5-year rate steady: LPR 1-year 3.45% vs. 3.40% expected and 3.55% prior. LPR 5-year 4.20% vs. 4.05% expected and 4.20% prior. PBoC The German July PPI missed expectations: PPI M/M -1.1% vs. -0.2% expected and -0.3% prior. PPI Y/Y -6.0%
It was a busy week for repricing monetary policy expectations, as central bank meeting minutes and top-tier data prints supported a longer period of high-interest rates for the major economies. Meanwhile, concerns over China’s growth and stability translated to limited risk-taking and even selling in the markets. Riskier assets like equities, commodities, and comdolls as
Stronger-than-expected U.S. and U.K. data releases supported hawkish biases for the Fed and BOE, boosting both the U.S. dollar and British pound to the top of this week’s rankings. Meanwhile, China’s growth concerns kept a lid on the demand for commodity-related currencies like AUD and NZD, as well as fueling risk aversion behavior this week.
Monday: Fed’s Bowman (hawk – voter) delivered hawkish comments over the weekend as she leans towards more rate hikes: We should remain willing to raise rates at a future meeting if data show inflation progress has stalled. In considering further rate hikes and how long to keep rates restrictive, consistent drops in inflation will be
Forex market players zoned in on Chinese data and U.S. inflation figures this week as these tend to strongly affect monetary policy expectations and sentiment. These reports signaled potential slowing inflation and growth conditions on net, spurring traders to balance narratives like calls for additional stimulus from China, a peak in the Fed rate hike
Monday: Fed’s Kashkari (hawk – voter) kept the door open for a rate hike in September as the FOMC remains data dependent: Not sure when the Fed will be done raising interest rates, making good progress. Will let the data guide the Fed, may or may not raise rates in September. US Economy has remained
