بار دیگر، تقویم امروز چیزی برای ارائه ندارد به جز اعتماد مصرف کنندگان در جمهوری چک. با این حال، محرک اصلی داستان جهانی است که نوسانات را به کل فضای بازارهای نوظهور (EM) اضافه می کند. فرانتیسک تابورسکی از ING اشاره می کند که دیروز بازار دوباره تحت فشار قرار گرفت و با تمرکز امروز
Share: The Swiss Franc (CHF) has proven to be the strongest G10 currency in the world this year. Economists at ING analyze EUR/CHF outlook. 2025 is when EUR/CHF will turn higher We think the SNB may tolerate EUR/CHF down near 0.95 during 2024 while it is still concerned with 2%+ inflation. Into 2025,
Share: Economists at ING are bullish on the NZD/USD and are interested in whether the new government changes the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s remit – a potentially bullish factor for the Kiwi. New government, higher rates? The New Zealand Dollar should benefit like AUD from a gradual optimistic rerating of growth expectations
Share: Economists at ING analyze USD/JPY outlook for the next year. Big policy changes in Japan can have a big impact on USD/JPY On the subject of carry, lower volatility favours the carry trade and also the yen as a funding currency. However, we have some quite aggressive forecasts for a lower USD/JPY
Share: It is quite a big week for Sterling. Economists at ING analyze GBP outlook. Some independent weakness emerging There does appear to be a little independent weakness emerging in Sterling, although the Bank of England’s trade-weighted index is only off around 0.6% over the last few days. Quite a large 1.7% MoM
Share: Canadian jobs figures may tilt market pricing towards another BoC rate hike, but watch for data volatility, economists at ING report. Key jobs figures to steer rate expectations As it often happens, Canadian jobs figures will be released at the same time as the US ones, and the USD/CAD reaction will depend
Share: Oil prices are currently up by more than 25% this quarter. Economists at ING expect Brent to break above $100 in the near term. However, they do not believe such a move will be sustainable. Oil price rally likely to continue, but not sustainable in the longer run We expect Oil prices
Share: Riksbank’s half-hawkish hike leaves the Krona vulnerable, economists at ING report. 12.00+ risk remains on the table in the short-term We want to stress this was a missed chance for the Riksbank to materially lift SEK. The new rate forecasts suggest another hike is not particularly likely, but markets still see good
Share: Markets have already written the script for the Fed today: a hawkish hold, and an unchanged 2023 dot plot. Any FX action would depend on potential revisions to the 2024 dots, economists at ING report. FOMC not a huge event for the Dollar The overall message by the Fed should be supportive
Share: In the view of economists at ING, EUR/USD sensitivity to the Dollar leg and – by extension – US activity data should be even higher at this point. Driven even more by the Dollar after dovish ECB hike We think that at this stage EUR/USD will revert to being even more driven
