Need to be pragmatic and keep an open mind Perseverance is now key given the time needed for full transmission of policy French inflation is falling even without a recession Our growing confidence in inflation moving towards the 2% target is based on good transmission of policy Well, I’d like to chip in by saying
US Dollar (DXY) Analysis USD barely budges after the FOMC announcement as traders require more convincing around another rate hike. Dollar weakness seen this morning ahead of ECB Large speculators, hedge funds positioning suggests greater USD pessimism Major risk events: US Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data The analysis in this article makes use of
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Number of traders net-short has decreased by 38.15% from last week. SYMBOL TRADING BIAS NET-LONG% NET-SHORT% CHANGE IN LONGS CHANGE IN SHORTS CHANGE IN OI EUR/USD BEARISH 51.68% 48.32% 3.24% Daily 61.51% Weekly -20.53% Daily -38.15% Weekly -9.80% Daily -9.19% Weekly of clients are net long. of clients are net short. Change in Longs Shorts
MON: PBoC MLF, South Korean Trade Balance Revised (Jun), Chinese GDP (Q2), Retail Sales, and Industrial Output(Jun) TUE: RBA Minutes, SARB Press Release, US Retail Sales (Jun), Canadian CPI (Jun), New Zealand CPI (Q2) WED: UK Inflation (Jun), EZ Final CPI (Jun), THU: PBoC LPR, CBRT Announcement, Japanese Trade Balance (Jun), Australian Jobs Report (Jun),
MON: Riksbank Minutes, Bank of Israel Announcement, Chinese Inflation (Jun), Norwegian CPI (Jun), Chinese New, Yuan Loans (Jun) TUE: EIA STEO WED: BoC Announcement, RBNZ Announcement, German CPI Final (Jun), UK Jobs Data (May/Jun), German ZEW Survey (Jul), US CPI (Jun) THU: ECB Minutes, BoK Announcement, OPEC MOMR, IEA OMR, EU-Japan summit, UK GDP (May),
Australian Retail Sales (Tue): The December Retail Sales data is seen printing at -1.0% vs the prior of +1.4%. Desks highlight that November’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday events were successful, as indicated in the November data, although analysts will now assess the impact of higher rates over the Christmas period. Westpac, citing the Westpac