Previewing the RBNZ policy decision due today – rate hike ahead of election is unlikely

The announcement is coming at 0100 GMT, which is 2100 US Eastern time.

The RBNZ is widely expected to leave its cash rate target on hold, but:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to want to see Q3 inflation data, which will be released on 16 October, and labour market data on the 31st of October. The November RBNZ meeting may well be ‘live’.

ING preview today:

• The RBNZ’s latest inflation projections – from the August Monetary Policy Statement – show an optimistic scenario for disinflation, largely based on assumptions about the impact of restrictive monetary policy and slowing domestic as well as external demand.

  Those assumptions are, however, met with the risks associated with: a) the extra spending deployed by the government from May, b) the recent spike in oil prices, c) residual supply-related inflationary effects of severe weather events, and d) the still unclear impact of booming net migration on wages and prices (easing labour supply, but raising demand for housing and other services).
  

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  We think that the RBNZ will continue to acknowledge those risks to inflation and strike a generally hawkish tone this week, with the aim of keeping inflation expectations capped.
• However, a rate hike seems unlikely a week before the elections and before having seen official CPI and jobs data.
• Once inflation figures are out, the RBNZ may tolerate a slightly higher-than-anticipated third quarter headline CPI (the projection is for 6.0% YoY), but expect greater scrutiny on non-tradable inflation (projected at 6.2%).