Market Update – November 09

It was another mixed day in the markets as players awaited fresh directional signals, including comments from Chair Powell later today. However, a new narrative is starting to build, one of slowing growth, with a recessionary tilt in Europe. The ongoing chant from the FOMC and ECB and BoE officials that more tightening might be necessary is adding to the angst over economic growth, alongside an effort to push back against speculation of early rate cuts, although it is increasingly clear that in the central scenario rates have peaked.

Concurrently, investors have been encouraged by this week’s auctions, that they have found buyers. And demand for higher yields have helped underscore a curve flattening trade with longer dated Treasuries outperforming. Falling Treasury yields helped launch an explosive rebound in stocks and lifted US government bonds from 16-year lows!

• Asian stock markets lower on mixed signals of peak US rates and weak Chinese economy.
• China slipped back into consumer price index deflation in October, as data released showed persistently weak demand in the economy. The inflation data is likely to reinforce the weaker-than-expected PMI figures last week.
• 10-year Treasury yield falls below 4.5%.
• USDIndex holds gains above 105. EURUSD under pressure as Eurozone retail sales declined.
• Stocks: The US100 and US500 benefited further from the drop in yields. The US100 posted a marginal 0.08% gain, with the US500 up 0.10%. But those were sufficient to give the US100 a 9th straight winning session, and an 8th straight for the S&P. The Dow dipped -0.12%.
• SoftBank adds to shareholder pain with unexpected $6bn loss.
• UK chip designer Arm’s shares fall after disappointing revenue forecast.
• Disney tops profit estimates.
• AstraZeneca raises yearly guidance amid strong sales of oncology treatments.
• Oil slipped to $74.88, but is currently in correction mode. Further pressure was added after the EIA issued the new outlook after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended voluntary production cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day through December as demand concerns weigh. US total petroleum consumption is now expected to fall by 300,000 bpd to 20.1 million bpd this year, compared with an estimated gain of 100,000 bpd in the October forecast.
• Gold at $1949.
• Bitcoin trades past $36,500 on possible ETF investment approval.
• Today: BOE chief economist Huw Pill, Fed Chair Jerome Powell & Fed President Raphael Bostic and Richmond speeches & US initial jobless claims.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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