Market Update – August 24 – NVDA posts stellar Q2 results; Stocks, Bonds, Metals rally on eve of Jackson Hole.

Let’s start with NVIDIA that after the close reported results of a stellar Q2 and topped analyst estimates both on Revenues ($13.51 billion vs $11.22 billion expected) and EPS ($2.70 vs $2.09). The company raised its forecast again and expects its Q3 revenues to climb to $16 billion, an increase of 170% y/y. Gains are driven by the data center business. In after hours trading the chip-maker rose 6.57% also driving up AMD (+4%) and TSMC (+3.1%). Indices added to this week rally despite weak PMIs data around the Developed Markets that instead weighted on local currencies: EUR, GBP and USD fell in this order during the day after lackluster readings. Interestingly, the EURUSD perfectly rebounded on its 200 MA.
US 30y mortgage rate soared to 7.31% and this led to the lowest Mortgage applications since 1995: despite that, US new home sales rose in July. Bonds rallied around the world with the UK Gilt up 2.13% after traders repriced the terminal rate well below 6% and a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters now believe the September hike to 5.5% will be the last one. German Bund gave up >10 bps and the 10y US T-note is 17bps off this week’s high. All of this gave wings to Gold, which touched $1921, and especially Silver, which rose 3.88%. Overnight, Asia joined the party and China50 rebounded strongly from near one-year lows.

US Mortgage 30 Years Rate and Mortgage Applications

• FX – USDIndex -0.05% at 103.28, EURUSD flat at 1.0865 after falling as low as 1.0802 yesterday, GBPUSD -0.09% @ 1.2713 still between the recent 1.2615/1.2785 range, USDJPY back above 145 (breached yesterday).
• Stocks – US Futures almost flat (-0.05% US30/+0.16% US100/+0.05% US500), EU Futures up 0.4%/0.6%; CHINA50 +1.42%, Hang Seng +1.91%, JPN225 +0.79%.
• Commodities – USOil is below $79 ($78.48 now) despite the bigger than expected drain from Oil Stocks (EIA data).
• Gold – holding at $1921, XAG consolidating at $24.23 after yesterday’s rally.

LATER TODAY: US Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, JACKSON HOLE kicks off.

INTERESTING FX MOVER: USDIndex (-0.05% @ 103.28) pulled back after rising as high as 103.90 in what could be the test of the upper bound of a channel. It is trading above both the 50 and 200 MA and both RSI and MACD are positive and upward sloping.

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Marco Turatti

Market Analyst

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