Market Update – August 23 – Waiting for Nvidia, PMIs & Jackson Hole

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On a day when Monday’s optimism had already faded in US markets, weighed down by both a new downgrade of the banking sector’s credit rating – this time by S&P – and the pullback of NVDA, one of the most interesting movements was the USD. Without any real news flow and without any abrupt movements in the bond market, the US currency appreciated steadily throughout the day – slowly but surely – especially against the currencies of the European continent (the YEN was saved from the selling and this is another piece of news). This was a purely technical movement, without any important levels being vulnerable – an adjustment of flows – but the EURUSD for example fell 97 pips from the highs to the lows of the day. All this on the day that the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg started, there was talk of ”inevitable de-dollarisation’‘ and President Putin assured that the trade in USD between the constituent countries is now only 28%. Back on the corporate side, retail is showing much more mixed results than the official stats show: yesterday MACY‘s dropped 14% after reiterating its conservative outlook, while LOWE‘s rose 3% after beating expectations; Nike has been down for 8 consecutive sessions, its worst streak ever. Today will see Peloton, Foot Locker, Abercrombie and especially NVIDIA after the close: implied volatility in the options market is for an 8.8% move after the results. Today is PMI day, tomorrow the Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off.

• FX – USDIndex -0.05% at 103.42 after rebounding on its 200 MA yesterday; EURUSD sitting on its ST support (1.0855), CABLE 1.2748, YEN eked out a gain yesterday and is now trading at 145.667. USDCNH < 7.30.
• Stocks – US and EU Futures higher (+0.28% US30/+0.56% US100/+0.42% US500/ +0.34% GER40); China50 -0.59% despite good BAIDU earnings results.
• Commodities – USOil is below $80 ($79.54 now), UKOil relatively stronger at $83.87.
• Gold – Rising at $1904.41, XAG outperforming (-1.17% at $23.67).

Today: HCOB PMIs Composite, Manufacturing, Services in Germany, France, Europe, SP PMIs in UK, US, Home Sales in US, European Consumer Confidence.

EURUSD, 30 mins

Interesting FX Mover: EURUSD (+0.12% @ 1.0859) hovering around the support area of 1.0840/1.0855 after falling from a high of 1.0930 to a low of 1.0832 yesterday. MA 200 at 1.08.

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Marco Turatti

Market Analyst

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