Market Recap: Dollar slumped; Gold & Oil supported on rising Fed rate cut bets

Economic Indicators & Central Banks :

• US consumer confidence improved better than expected, but it follows big downward revisions to October.  The consumer confidence rise joins a Michigan sentiment decline to a 6-month low. All the surveys face headwinds from elevated mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and fears about developments in the Middle East.
• Fed’s Waller (the most hawkish Fed) &  Goolsbee are “increasingly confident” that policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%. BUT Fed Governor Bowman reiterated she favors more rate hikes if the progress on inflation stalls.
• The RBNZ warned this morning that further policy tightening might be needed if price pressures did not ease.
• German import prices unexpectedly rose 0.3% m/m in October. However, annual import price inflation seems to have bottomed out in August and the trend of ever deeper deflation has been reversed now.

Market Trends

• Fed funds futures rallied on the dovish read. Implied rates popped to suggest about a 70% chance for a rate cut as soon as the May 1 policy meeting, versus about a 55% risk a week ago. However, a significant downturn in growth could spark the more aggressive easing posture as the market is reflecting.
• Treasury bulls took less than hawkish Fedspeak and ran with it. Short term bond yields dropped sharply, to the lowest since July and August.
• Stocks in Asia and US are fractionally higher after a mixed trade most of the session, as Treasury yields and USD hit multi-month lows. JPN225 fell at 33,321 as investors continue their pause in buying.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The US Dollar bears chased the Buck lower. USDIndex fell to 102.36, the weakest since August. – Its worst monthly performance in a year!
• EURUSD broke 61.8% Fib level on July-September downleg, breaching1.1016. Cable is at 1.2730.
• USDZAR extended to 18.51 lows, JPY jumped to its strongest point since mid-September at 146.66. The NZD surged more than 1% to July’s high of 0.6207.
• USOIL & Gold climbed to $77 from $74 lows, and to $2051.93 per ounce, the highest since May, respectively.  The weaker US Dollar, global uncertainties, and rising Fed rate cut bets supported Gold and Oil.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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