Market Recap: Bonds up; Stocks weaker; DXY set for the worst month in a year

Market Trends:

• Asian stocks fell in response to declines in US and European markets, triggered by hawkish signals from central banks on interest rates.
• Bonds extended gains amid growing conviction that central banks in Europe and the US have concluded rate hikes, with expectations of potential rate cuts next year.
• The US Dollar hovered near three-month lows as investors believed the Federal Reserve had completed its rate-hike cycle, with attention focused on an upcoming crucial inflation report.

Central Bank Developments:

• ECB President Lagarde noted that the central bank’s efforts to control price growth are ongoing, citing strong wage growth and an uncertain outlook despite easing inflation pressures in the eurozone.
• CME’s FedWatch indicated a 95% likelihood that the US central bank will maintain unchanged interest rates next month, but there is a growing possibility of a rate cut gaining traction in mid-2024.

Global Economic Indicators:

• Australia experienced an unexpected decline in retail sales for October, with consumers cutting spending on everything except food.
• Germany saw a slight improvement in consumer sentiment as the Christmas month approached, but it remained at a very low level, attributed to high inflation, indicating no signs of a sustainable recovery in Europe’s largest economy.

Financial Markets Performance:

• Weaker-than-expected home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index weighed on Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield at 4.396%.
• JPN225 closed 0.12% lower at 33,408.39, despite being up 8% for the month, failing to surpass its highest closing level in three decades reached on July 3 in recent attempts.
• JPY gained momentum as the USDIndex hit a three-month low on weaker-than-expected data, while EURUSD dipped to 1.0937, breaching the bottom of a one-week channel with the next support at 1.0925.
• AUD rose to 0.6630, reaching a four-month high, while NZD touched a seven-week high of 0.6114.
• USOIL eased 0.13% to $74.74, and UKOIL dropped below $80 as oil prices fluctuated ahead of an OPEC+ meeting later in the week.
• Gold reached $2,013.80, hitting a fresh six-month peak of $2,017.89 earlier in the session.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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