Impact of Fed hikes more important than US elections for 2024 performance – Commerzbank

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In one year, Americans will elect their president. Polls show Donald Trump in a neck-and-neck race with incumbent Joe Biden. Economists at Commerzbank analyze market implications of the US elections.

Prolonged period with unclear winner to weigh on the markets for some time

In 2024, it will likely be important to see if there is a clear and widely accepted election winner. If there is a prolonged period where it is unclear who won the elections (as had been the case with George W. Bush’s election in 2000), with the Supreme Court possibly having a say, this would certainly weigh on the markets for some time. 

But ultimately, in our opinion, whether 2024 will be a good year for equity will not depend on the election outcome, but on the question of how negatively the massive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will impact the US economy and S&P 500 corporate earnings in 2024.