Fed’s Barkin: Lost data due to government shutdown would complicate understanding econ

• It will be hard to figure out in the economy without data
• Credit card data is a good alternative data set
• I try to talk to businesses and workers what’s happening in the economy
• Growth still seems ‘solid’ in the economy
• It makes sense that lower and middle-income spending is adjusting to a slower pace
• Growth will moderate from earlier this year
• The data on consumer spending in the past few months has been ‘extraordinary’ but he expects it to slow
• I’ve heard that the middle income consumer is starting to ‘re-prioritize’ spending
• I’m expecting the next quarter to be ‘solid’ no ‘robust’
• Pace of growth in Q1/Q2 is unlikely to continue
• I think we will see demand softening
• It’s very difficult to imagine inflation settling with growth above trend
• We’ve unleashed people’s ability to use price as a lever
• We’re still seeing wage pressure in the skilled trades
• The last five months of inflation data have been encouraging

Barkin is a good indication of the core of the Fed and he clearly wants to see more data and is no rush to adjust the Fed’s stance.