Dallas Fed October manufacturing index -19.2 vs -18.1 prior

Details:

• Output (production) +5.2 vs +7.9 prior
• New orders -8.8 vs -5.2 prior
• Employment +6.7 vs +13.6 prior
• Outlook -17.1 vs -17.5 prior
• Prices paid for raw materials +13.6 vs +25.0 prior
• Prices received -2.1 vs +1.8 prior
• Wages +24.4 vs +34.8 prior

Comments in the report:

Chemical manufacturing

• The Middle East situation has raised uncertainty.
• With the unrest in the Middle East, there is now additional
  global uncertainty and about how it will impact the U.S. and overall
  global economy. There is limited optimism; we will see a very slow
  recovery in the first quarter depending on the global impacts of
  additional conflict.

Computer and electronic product manufacturing

• Overall customer projections are said to be up for 2024, but our forecasts don’t match and are down.
• We are working our way to find a cyclical bottom. The overall
  economy is still the wild card, and it’s not helping. If things stay
  stable in the economy overall, customer inventories should have stopped
  draining, and our growth should resume sometime by mid next year.

Fabricated metal product manufacturing

• Supply-chain issues, particularly with the Panama Canal
  [bottleneck], have created delays that have resulted in reduced sales
  over the summer. Hopefully, these have been sorted out now.
• Business is great. Our profit, great.
• We are seeing a pronounced slowdown in owners going forward with
  new projects. There is too much uncertainty in the economy and
  globally.

Food manufacturing

• Reduction in government grants, cash flow issues with customers
  and the uncertainty created by the lack of border controls [are issues
  affecting our business].
• Food service demand is soft. Retail (grocery) demand has remained
  steady. Our premium pet food business has fallen off significantly.
• We have experienced a small reduction in our workforce over the
  last several weeks as we have shifted our strategy with our maintenance
  team. This reduction in workforce has not impacted our volume or sales.
  We expect mild growth next year.

Machinery manufacturing

• Business has slowed down significantly; we see no signs of improvement in business activity.
• Six months from now is actually quite scary. The economy is
  uncertain, and customers cannot predict with any certainty what they
  see. Political pressure and the wars are now forcing customers to
  reevaluate their business activities and reduce their outlook. It’s
  very uncertain.
• Oh, how we long for the days of a stable market. We just lost
  another long-time customer to China where the pricing for the finished
  product was what we pay for the raw material. With the inflation we
  have being imposed on us here in the U.S., we won’t ever see those
  customers come back.
• We are off by 20 percent this year so far. I don’t expect it to
  get better. Prices of goods are going up. Shipping is going up.

Miscellaneous manufacturing

• The continuing UAW [United Auto Workers] strike is beginning to decrease our sales.
• In a consumer business, we are hearing a lot more “I can’t afford this” than we ever have before.

Paper manufacturing

• Activity is definitely slowing down. We remain optimistic at this point for a turnaround, but cautiously.

Primary metal manufacturing

• The economy is slowing.
• Our industry continues to be severely damaged by foreign
  countries dumping product into the U.S. and our territories. That,
  coupled with overall business being down, has caused a loss of jobs and
  capital dollars going back into our industry.
• We anticipate that business conditions will remain constant or
  decline over the next three to four months, based on the rate that we
  are receiving orders. Oil and gas orders have been weak all year, which
  is strange since oil prices have been high and are anticipated to
  continue to increase with the uncertainty in the world order.

Printing and related support activities

• We are starting to get slow and have seen this coming for a
  while. Quote levels are way down, which is a bad indicator of what’s to
  come. We did, however, get a large reorder on a job we have done many
  times over the years, which will buffer the slowness for a while. I
  believe we are trending into a softer economy that is going to have
  repercussions for our industry for a while.

Textile product mills

• Order and sales volume have slightly increased month over month
  from September. We have seen longer delivery times and lead/wait times
  at the Los Angeles port, causing slight delays with inventory
  shipments. Overall uncertainty as to demand is high. The general
  consensus among other manufacturers/sellers is that demand/sales are
  weak, and no one is sure what the short-term future holds.

Transportation equipment manufacturing

• We are currently forecasting a 20 percent drop in 2024 versus
  2023 (previously planned for a 13 percent drop), so the market forecast
  has worsened month over month.
• The lack of petroleum-based energy policy is troublesome.