Bulls have the upper hand, could aim to test all-time peak near 83.45

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• USD/INR is seen consolidating in a narrow band just above the 83.00 mark.
• The technical setup favours bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.
• Any meaningful corrective slide is likely to get bought into and remain limited.

The USD/INR pair struggles to capitalize on its modest gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow range through the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade just above the 83.00 mark and the setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

The positive outlook is reinforced by the fact that the USD/INR pair is holding comfortably above technically significant 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Moreover, positive oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing traction – favour bullish traders and validate the near-term positive outlook. Hence, some follow-through strength beyond last week’s swing high, around the 83.20-83.25 region, en route to the record high, around the 83.45 region touched in August, looks like a distinct possibility.

On the flip side, any meaningful slide might continue to find some support near the 82.80 area or the weekly low. This is followed by the 100-day and the 200-day SMAs confluence, currently pegged around the 82.45-82.35 region, which should act as a pivotal point. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and make the USD/INR pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide to the 82.00 mark.

The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the July monthly swing low, around the 81.70-81.65 region. Failure to defend the said support levels will suggest that USD/INR has topped out in the near term and pave the way for a meaningful corrective decline. Spot prices might then weaken towards the 81.35 intermediate support before eventually dropping towards testing sub-81.00 levels.

USD/INR daily chart

Technical levels to watch