Bank of Canada interest rate pause continued, with a “clear hiking bias”

The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 5%, although other events overtook the news on it:

Via, RBC, their ‘Bottom Line” response, in brief:

• CPI readings still running well above the 2% target, the BoC is firmly focused on getting inflation under control. Slower than expected progress is a concern. But evidence continues to build that interest rates are already restrictive enough to continue to cool the economy, and alleviate price pressures.
• consumers in the coming quarters are expected to further cut spending as more of them contend with rising borrowing costs
• a weaker global economic backdrop is also expected to slow export and investment activities with Canadian businesses, who are already facing tighter financial conditions following a rise in longer-maturity bond yields
• The BoC will be cautious about starting to ease off the monetary policy brakes too quickly – we expect the overnight rate will be held at 5% through the first half of next year, with modest rate cuts to follow starting in Q3 2024.

USD/CAD update: