Atlanta Fed GDPNow model starts Q3 growth at 3.5%

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model which forecasts growth for the quarter from published data has started its Q3 estimate at 3.5%.

In their own words:

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 3.5 percent on July 28. The initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27 was 2.4 percent, equal to the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 26 after rounding.

The next estimate will be released on August 1.

Yesterday the advanced Q2 GDP numbers were released and they showed growth at 2.4%. The Atlanta Fed model estimated growth at precisely that level. The market economists and analysts peg their growth estimates at 1.8%. Well done Atlanta Fed economists. In Q1, the model estimated growth at 1.1%. The advanced GDP for Q1 came in at 1.1% (it was ultimately revised higher to 2.4% given new stronger data).

So hats off to the Atlanta Fed for modeling GDP growth pretty well.