All eyes on US retail sales data due Tuesday, 15 August 2023 – preview

Preview comments from Bank of America, looking for a solid beat. Bolding is mine:

We expect a robust retail sales report for July

Over the last two trading days, BofA Global Research analysts have published 12 notes on July card data.

• Total card spending per household (HH), as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, was up 0.1% year-over-year (y/y) in July.
• Card spending per HH rose by a solid 0.7% month-over-month (m/m) on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis.

We forecast above-consensus increases of 0.7% and 0.6% in the Census Bureau’s July figures for retail sales ex-autos and the core control group (retail sales ex autos, gas. building materials and restaurants) respectively.

BoA add further that they expect to see “Discount apparel spend up and accelerating”.

More:

• For the month of July, BAC aggregated credit and debit card data indicates Online spending (card not present) increased 1.7% Y/Y, a 1.9pt acceleration vs. June.
• Growth in July was supported by July 4th (+9% Y/Y on the day), while the week of Prime Day saw 3% growth (vs. Adobe Analytics data suggesting 6% YN industry growth during the two-day event).
• Online penetration of retail was at 25.9% in July, up 60bps Y/Y. Trends suggesting spend may be shifting back to Online are becoming more encouraging. Also, y/y change in BAC card spending data has been trending below other eCommerce data. we think eCornmerce industry could be growing 5-10%.