Market Update – August 28 – Higher for Longer

China bourses rallied after China announced support for equities markets; Beijing lowered stamp duty on stock traders for the first time the 2008 financial crisis and at the same time pledged to slow the pace of initial public offerings in an effort to boost investor confidence. Fed Chair Powell signalled caution on additional rate hikes. Stocks & US Dollar rallied while the 10-year Treasury yield is down -2.2 bp at 4.21%. However, entering the final week of August, the US100, US500, and US30 were all in the red over the last month.

Jackson Hole Symposium: did not reveal anything new or provide fresh insight on the policy paths. Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, and BoE’s Broadbent stressed their commitment to bringing inflation down. That stance will warrant keeping rates restrictive for some time, if not call for additional rate hikes down the road. However, Powell noted the Fed’s approach would be careful and patient, while Lagarde said the ECB would be deliberate and decisive. In contrast, the BoJ’s Ueda said below-target inflation will keep the accommodative stance in place there.

• FX – USDIndex has dropped below 104 but within 2-month channel, EURUSD holds above 1.0800, GBPUSD drifts to 1.2577, USDJPY sideways at 146.27-146.61.
• Stocks – Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.4% and 1.5% respectively. JPN225 and ASX gained 1.7% and 0.6% and European and US futures rallied on the open. NVIDIA-2.43%,TESLA+3.72%, China Evergrande Group fell as much as 87% early today when trading resumed following a 17 month suspension, wiping out almost $2.4 billion of its value after saying it had “adequately” fulfilled all guidance issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. – This is adding to uncertainty over one of China’s biggest restructurings ever.
• Commodities – USOil held at $80 as China announced measures to boost its stock and property markets, helping offset concerns about increased supply and monetary tightening in the US and Europe.
• Gold – $1914.70.
• BTCUSD -0.47% at 25,872.63, ETHUSD -0.45% at 1638.50.

Today: German Buba President Nagel, ECB Guindos and Schnabel are set to speak, and their comments will be watched very carefully.

Interesting Mover: GBPUSD held below $1.2600, forming an interesting possible head and shoulder formation pattern.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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