UK GDP Data Beats Estimates, Sterling Undecided

GBP/USD Prices, Charts, and Analysis

• The UK economy grew by 0.2% in the second quarter.
• The economy is estimated to have expanded by 0.5% in June.

The UK economy expanded by a better-than-expected 0.2% in Q2, beating forecasts of zero growth, while the economy grew by a more robust 0.5% in June compared to forecasts of 0.2%. According to Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), ‘Services also had a strong month with publishing and cars sales and legal services all doing well, though this was partially offset by falls in health, which was hit by strike action’.

The GDP y/y estimate jumped sharply higher to 0.9% compared to forecasts of 0.5% and from a prior -0.4%.

Manufacturing and industrial production also beat estimates, while the volatile construction orders reading jumped sharply higher, from -14.3% last month to 2.6%.

ONS GDP First Quarter Estimate

Retail trader data shows 58.04% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.38 to 1.

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Sterling is little changed in early turnover despite the positive data. The British Pound trades at 1.2715 against the US dollar, around 0.3% higher, and around 0.15% to the good against the Euro at 0.640. Today’s news will please the Bank of England and may give him food for thought ahead of the next monetary policy meeting. If next week’s CPI figures show a marked slowdown in UK inflation, then the MPC may well keep rates unchanged at the next meeting. While the good economic boost may underpin Sterling, if rates are left untouched, it is still a big data-dependent if, the British Pound may struggle to push higher in the weeks ahead.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart August 11, 2023

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